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(OPEC): Crude oil prices rise, supported by expectations of strong demand in winter

12-11-2021

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said Thursday that spot crude oil prices rose by more than 12 percent last October, supported by expectations of higher demand for oil in the winter months. And (OPEC) stated in its report for the month of November that this rise came against the backdrop of rising energy prices in Europe and Asia, explaining that the strong fundamentals of the oil market, which were increased by expectations of an increase in demand for oil in the winter months, from the “switching of gas to oil” supported spot prices and contracts. crude futures. It added that the price of the (OPEC) basket of crudes in October recorded an increase of 8.23 ​​dollars per barrel, or 11.1 percent compared to the previous month, to reach 82.11 dollars per barrel. It indicated that since the beginning of this year until October, the average price of (OPEC) crudes amounted to $68.33 a barrel, achieving gains of $27.77, or 68.4 percent, compared to the same period last year. Regarding global economic growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022, the report stated that there was no change from last month's assessment of 5.6 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The report revealed that the continued strong growth in the global economy faces several challenges due to the uncertainty about the spread of (Covid 19) strains and the pace of vaccine launches around the world as well as the ongoing bottlenecks in the global supply chain while sovereign debt levels remain in many countries along with inflationary pressures Increasing and potential central bank responses are key factors that require constant and careful monitoring. In its report, (OPEC) expected that global demand for oil would reach 96.4 million barrels per day in 2021 and 100.6 million barrels per day in 2022. The report dealt with global oil supplies, expecting the supply of crude from outside (OPEC) to grow by 700,000 barrels per day in 2021 to reach 63.6 million barrels per day and an increase of three million barrels in 2022 to reach 66.7 million barrels per day. The report revealed that the main drivers of non-OPEC oil supply growth this year and next are due to the volume of production coming from Russia and the United States, which will contribute an increase of about one million barrels per day each, followed by Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana and other countries. Regarding the production of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the report indicated an increase of 220,000 barrels per day, reaching a rate of 27.45 million barrels per day, an increase of approximately 4.9 million barrels per day compared to 2020. In its report, the organization concluded by saying that the demand for (OPEC) crudes in 2022 will witness a slight decrease by 100,000 barrels per day to settle at 28.7 million barrels per day, which is one million barrels higher than the rates of 2021.