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OPEC expects demand for OPEC+ crudes to exceed 43 million barrels per day in 2025

14-10-2024

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced today, Monday, that the demand for OPEC+ crude oils was revised down by 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month's assessment to reach 43.2 million barrels per day, which is about 500,000 barrels per day more than the 2024 estimates. The organization explained in its monthly report that the demand for OPEC+ crude oils was revised down by 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's assessment to reach 42.8 million barrels per day for the year 2024, which is about 600,000 barrels per day more than the estimate for 2023. Regarding the movement of crude oil prices last September, the report stated that the price of the OPEC basket of crude oils decreased by $4.82 per barrel, equivalent to 6.1 percent, to reach $73.59 per barrel, and the price of the benchmark Brent crude decreased by $6.01, equivalent to 7.6 percent, to reach an average of $72.87 per barrel. The report addressed global economic growth and said that it remained unchanged in September from last month’s assessment at 3.0 percent for 2024 and 2.9 percent for 2025. In contrast, US economic growth forecasts for 2024 were revised slightly upward to 2.5 percent, reflecting upward revisions to official growth figures for the first half of 2024. As for 2025, US growth remains unchanged at 1.9 percent. The report indicated that Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2024 was revised slightly downward to 0.1 percent, reflecting slight downward revisions to official growth figures for the first half of 2024, while the forecast for 2025 remains at 0.9 percent. For the euro area, growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 0.8 percent and 1.2 percent respectively, while China’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.9 percent for 2024 and 4.6 percent for 2025. In India, forecasts also remain unchanged at 6.8 percent for 2024 and 6.3 percent for 2025. OPEC reported in its report that Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.2 percent for 2024 and 1.5 percent for 2025. Global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 have been revised to 1.9 million barrels per day, which is still well above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day before the COVID-19 pandemic. OECD oil demand is expected to grow by more than 100,000 barrels per day in 2024, with OECD countries in the Americas providing the bulk of the contribution. The report added that non-OECD oil demand is expected to grow by 1.8 million barrels per day this year. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 has also been revised down by 102 tonnes per day. The report said that non-OECD oil demand is set to lead growth next year, increasing by about 1.5 million barrels per day, led by contributions from China, other Asian countries, the Middle East and India. Global non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the United States, Canada, Brazil and China. The forecast for non-OPEC oil supply growth, as well as supply for 2025, is also unchanged at 1.1 million barrels per day. Growth is expected to be driven mainly by the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway.