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(OPEC) expects strong growth in global oil demand in 2025 by 1.8 million barrels per day

10-07-2024

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expected that global demand for oil in 2025 will witness strong growth of 1.8 million barrels per day, i.e. without change to the May assessments. The organization's June report, distributed by the General Secretariat on Wednesday, stated that global oil demand growth expectations for the current year 2024 will remain at the level of 2.2 million barrels per day. In its report, OPEC expected that demand for oil from OECD countries would grow by 1 million barrels per day in 2025, while demand from outside the OECD would increase by 1.7 million barrels per day. It is expected that demand for oil in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will expand in 2024 by about 200 thousand barrels per day, while demand from outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to grow by about 2.1 million barrels per day. Regarding oil supplies from outside the OPEC Plus alliance, the report expected that oil supplies would grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024, without change from the previous month’s assessment, as the United States, Canada, and Brazil will be the main growth engines. Regarding the price of the OPEC reference basket of crudes, the organization’s report stated that the price of the basket decreased slightly by 37 cents, or 0.4 percent, to an average of $83.22 per barrel. The price of standard Brent crude did not change and remained at $83.00 per barrel. The report indicated that fund managers have become less pessimistic about oil as selling pressures have decreased. According to the report, global economic growth expectations were revised slightly upward to 2.9 percent for 2024, but remained unchanged at 2.9 percent for 2025. As for the United States, economic growth expectations for both 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 2.2 and 1.9 percent, respectively. Expectations for economic growth in the euro area were also slightly revised to reach 0.7 percent in 2024, with no change in 2025 at 1.2 percent. As for China, economic growth expectations for 2024 were revised slightly upward to 4.9 percent, while 2025 expectations remained at 4.6 percent, while economic growth expectations in India for 2024 and 2025 did not change at 6.6 and 6.3 percent, respectively. Russia's economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were revised slightly higher to 3.1 and 1.5 percent, respectively. For the first time in seven months, US crude oil exports fell to less than 4 million barrels per day, with an average of 3.8 million barrels per day. The latest data for China showed that average crude oil imports reached 11.1 million barrels per day in May, an increase but less than about 9 percent compared to the same month last year. OPEC continued in its report to say: The demand for OPEC Plus crude in 2024 was revised down slightly by one hundred thousand barrels per day from the previous month’s assessment to reach 43.1 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to about 900 thousand barrels per day / higher than the estimate for 2023. Demand for OPEC Plus crude for 2025 was also revised down by 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month’s assessment to reach 43.9 million barrels per day, which is about 700,000 barrels per day higher than the estimates for 2024.