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Economic Affairs

Most Important Indicators In the Oil Market

    • Global economic slowdown dominated latest developments in the oil market, where the International Monetary Fund estimates that world economic growth by 0.5% in 2009. Due to further deterioration in economic performance in industrialized countries, particularly in the United States and Japan, which recorded negative rates of growth, as well as China's economy slowing, the International Monetary Fund is expected to reduce estimates for world growth this year. The OPEC Secretariat also expects in recent estimates have not been published yet slowing global economic growth negative rate below zero.
    • The price of OPEC basket of crudes rose to 45.78 dollars / barrel on average for the month of March compared to $41.41 /d in the month of February, compared to 90.03 dollars per barrel in March last year, as a result of the impact of an OPEC agreement to cut production ceiling by 4.2 million barrels per day.
    • With restricted supplies from OPEC countries and the actions agreed at the G2 on the improvement of the global economy, crude oil prices rose in April to reach $50.25 /b for the price of OPEC basket of crudes till the seventh of April 2009, and Kuwait Export crude rose to 50.32 dollars a barrel.
    Monthly oil prices Nov 08 - Apr 09 ($/bbl):
     
      NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
    Basket 49.76 38.60 41.54 41.41 45.78 49.46
    BRENT 52.51 40.35 43.59 43.07 46.55 49.33
    WTI 57.12 41.45 41.50 39.08 48.00 51.17
    *Up to 7th Apr 2009
    • The slowing global economic growth impacted on the growth rate of global demand for crude oil in 2009, the growth of global demand is expected to decrease by about 1 million barrels per day, bringing the rate to 84.6 million barrels per day, which reduced demand growth in industrialized countries by about 1.5 million barrels per day. The share of decline for the U.S. will be about 600 thousand barrels per day, while demand growth in developing countries will be limited to approximately 600 thousand barrels per day, and demand will be concentrated in the Middle East and Latin America. Apparent demand in Russia will be reduced, with the low performance of its economy linked to oil prices, and stability in the consumption of China in 2009.
    • As a result of lower oil prices, deterioration of the economy, the delay of some capital projects and the continued low rate of production in the North Sea States, slow growth rate of non-OPEC supply is estimated at about 800 thousand barrels per day in 2009 (including the production of natural gas liquids in OPEC countries) to rate the supplies to 55.3 million barrels per day.
    • Production of Crude Oil OPEC fell in March 2009 by 212 million barrels per day by secondary sources, but up from the production ceiling by 660 thousand barrels per day, agreed in the Algiers conference held in December last year, the rate of commitment is about 84% compared with 77% in February. The biggest countries that have committed to reduction are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, and in return Ecuador and Iran have not adhered to share the specific productivity for them.
    OPEC Production
    MB/D
    Mar-09
    a
    Sep-08
    b
    Required
    Reduction
    Adherence
    Alg 1.252 1.40 0.201 75.21%
    Ang 1.625 1.76 0.244 55.70%
    Ecua 0.469 0.50 0.067 47.47%
    Irn 3.660 3.90 0.562 42.38%
    Kuw 2.210 2.60 0.374 103.21%
    Lib 1.518 1.72 0.251 80.36%
    Nig 1.820 1.99 0.319 53.98%
    Qat 0.737 0.85 0.122 95.34%
    S.Arabia 7.872 9.37 1.318 113.60%
    UAE 2.230 2.60 0.379 98.15%
    Venz 2.112 2.35 0.364 65.38%
    Tot(12) 25.504 29.04 4.200 84.28%
    Irq 2.343 2.21 - -
    T.OPEC(13) 27.848 31.25 - -

     

    • Commercial stock in industrial countries declined about 20 million barrels in December 2008 on average in the month of November, but compared to December of 2007, commercial inventories rose by 104 million barrels. Preliminary data suggest high reserve of about 14 million barrels in January 2009 (about 450 thousand barrels per day). With the rise in crude oil inventories (particularly in the United States), inventory levels remain higher than the rate in the past five years about 100 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2008 (the equivalent of 1.1 million barrels per day).
    • With the decline in crude oil prices and demand some producers and traders preferred storing oil in Floating Storages, on the basis of re-sale of this stock until the return of robust demand and high prices. Sea inventory increased from 10 million barrels a day for up to 145 million barrels per day in January 2009 compared to 135 million barrels in December 2008.
    • According to the latest weekly data for U.S. stocks, crude oil inventories rose in the United States at the end of February by 50 million barrels compared to the same week last year, and gasoline inventories fell at about 18 million bpd for the same period, but in comparison, inventory of medium product rose by about 25 million barrels per day.
    • • The adequacy of commercial stock of industrial countries in the fourth quarter of 2008 was about 57 days in industrialized countries, compared to 53 for the historical average, and this increase was a result of lower demand for oil.

    Demand for OPEC oil and stock:

    The rate of demand for OPEC oil and stocks was 31 million barrels per day in 2008, down by 500 thousand barrels per day from 2007. The rate of OPEC production is 31.1 million barrels per day, an increase by one million barrels per day for 2008, which resulted in accumulation in inventory quantities estimated at about 100 thousand barrels per day.

    2009:

    The rate of demand for OPEC oil and stocks is expected to decrease by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2009 to reach 29.2 million barrels per day. Divided into seasons of the year as follows: (Unit: million barrels per day)

      Avg- 08 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09 4Q-09 Avg- 09
    Call on OPEC 31.0 29.3 29.2 29.7 28.8 29.2